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☆ China's economic growth is set to slow in 2024. Here's what Wall Street is predicting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China was due Wednesday to release GDP figures for 2023, and previously announced an official target of around 5% growth for the year. Despite significant growth in sectors such as tourism and electric cars, China's economy last year did not rebound from the pandemic as quickly as many banks had initially expected. watch nowThe International Monetary Fund in November also cited China's policy announcements as a reason for its decision to raise the 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, from 5% previously. However, the IMF said it still expected China's growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In the long term, analysts generally expect China's economy to slow further from a high base.

Persons: Pan Jianyong, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Li Qiang, Haibin Zhu, Li Organizations: Co, Getty, Visual China, BEIJING —, Economic, Tuesday, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, CNBC, China, China Economic, Monetary Fund Locations: MEISHAN, CHINA, Sichuan, Meishan, Sichuan Province, China, Davos, Beijing, decelerating

☆ JP Morgan, Nomura raise China's 2023 economic growth forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

JP Morgan now expects China's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 5.2% in 2023, up from their previous forecast and Beijing's official target of a 5% growth. Data on Wednesday showed China's GDP grew 4.9% in July-September from the year earlier, higher than a Reuters poll expectation for a 4.4% increase. Zhu warned, however, of weak links in the economy, such as private investment and a housing market correction. "Weak nominal GDP growth suggests that the earnings and profit outlook remains a hurdle in the path to the recovery in private investment," he noted. JPM sees China's potential growth coming down faster than initially expected in 2024 and 2025 to a range of 4%-4.5% and 3.5%-4%, respectively.

Persons: Thomas Peter, JP Morgan, Nomura, Haibin Zhu, JPM, Zhu, Albee Zhang, Susan Mathew, Christian Schmollinger, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China

☆ Wall Street brokerages raise China's 2023 economic growth forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 18 (Reuters) - JP Morgan, Citigroup and Nomura on Wednesday lifted their forecast for China's economic growth for the year following upbeat data, but highlighted the need for more stimulus. Citigroup now expects China's GDP to grow 5.3% in 2023 from 5% earlier, while JP Morgan and Nomura see it at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. JP Morgan expects the economic momentum to persist in the coming months. Since the 5% growth target looks achievable, policy space could be saved for next year, Zheng said. JP Morgan expects China's potential growth coming down faster than initially expected in 2024 and 2025 to a range of 4%-4.5% and 3.5%-4%, respectively.

Persons: Thomas Peter, JP Morgan, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Haibin Zhu, Morgan Stanley, Jenny Zheng, Zheng, Albee Zhang, Susan Mathew, Christian Schmollinger, Eileen Soreng Organizations: REUTERS, Citigroup, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China

☆ J.P.Morgan, ANZ raise 2023 China GDP forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People stand at a shopping mall near the CCTV headquarters and China Zun skyscraper, in Beijing's central business district (CBD), China September 7, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Sept 15 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan and ANZ on Friday raised their 2023 economic growth forecast for China, after August economic numbers offered some signs of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy. Both raised their GDP forecast by 20 basis points each to 5% and 5.1% respectively, with JPM saying notable recovery in retail sales and rise in service activity were the biggest surprises. Zhu said additional fiscal and housing policy relaxation like subsidy for product-specific consumption support, relaxation of home buying restrictions, sales restrictions and price controls in tier-1 and 2 cities may follow in the near term. Goldman Sachs kept its third-quarter GDP growth forecast unchanged at 4.9% but said China's economy is still in a tug of war between persistent growth headwinds and increasing policy support.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Zhu, JPM, Goldman Sachs, Aniruddha Ghosh, Liz Lee, Gao Liangping, Kim Coghill, Varun Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ANZ, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing's, Rights BEIJING, Bengaluru, Beijing

☆ JPMorgan, Citi raise full-year forecasts for China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Steven Han | Moment | Getty ImagesAnalysts at JPMorgan and Citi raised their full-year forecasts for China's economy after it delivered an impressive first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.5% on Tuesday. Citi economists noted that while services outperformed in the consumption-driven growth for the first quarter, they remain cautious on their forecasts. "The release of pent-up demand during Covid and holiday helped, but we remain cautious on its outlook without big stimulus in sight and the discounts intensifying," Citi economists wrote. With economy stabilization playing out, structural reform could be the next theme to watch," Citi economists wrote. "Risks facing our full-year GDP forecast of 5.7%Y is now skewed to the upside given a strong entry," Morgan Stanley economists led by Zhipeng Cai wrote.

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